Seismic Risk Analysis of Revenue Losses, Gross Regional Product and transportation systems.

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have shown seri- ous impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 earthquake emphasized the importance of pre- paredness and awareness to reduce social impacts. Earthquakes impacted businesses and dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Seismic Hazard is traditionally assessed using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Anal- ysis (PSHA). PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location, but it’s unsatisfactory for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes overcome the problem representing the actual distribution of shaking over a spatially distributed system. The performance of distributed productive systems during the recovery process needs to be explored. Scenario earthquakes have been used to assess the risk in bridge networks and the social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes has been applied to a real case study: Treviso, a city in the North East of Italy. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes requires three models: one representation of the sources (Italian Seismogenic Zonation 9), one attenuation relationship (Sa- betta and Pugliese 1996) and a model of the occurrence rate of magnitudes (Gutenberg Richter). A methodology has been proposed to reduce thou- sands of scenarios to a subset consistent with the hazard at each location. Earthquake scenarios, along with Mote Carlo method, have been used to simulate business damage. The response of business facilities to earthquake has been obtained from fragility curves for precast industrial building. Fur- thermore, from business damage the reduction of productivity has been simulated using economic data from the National statistical service and a proposed piecewise “loss of functionality model”. To simulate the economic process in the time domain, an innovative businesses recovery function has been proposed. The proposed method has been applied to generate scenarios earthquakes at the location of bridges and business areas. The proposed selection method- ology has been applied to reduce 8000 scenarios to a subset of 60. Subse- quently, these scenario earthquakes have been used to calculate three system performance parameters: the risk in transportation networks, the risk in terms of business damage and the losses of gross regional product. A novel model for business recovery process has been tested. The proposed model has been used to represent the business recovery process and simulate the effects of government aids allocated for reconstruction. The proposed method has efficiently modeled the seismic hazard using scenario earthquakes. The scenario earthquakes presented have been used to assess possible consequences of earthquakes in seismic prone zones and to increase the preparedness. Scenario earthquakes have been used to sim- ulate the effects to economy of the impacted area; a significant Gross Regional Product reduction has been shown, up to 77% with an earthquake with 0.0003 probability of occurrence. The results showed that limited funds available after the disaster can be distributed in a more efficient way

distributed mass balance modelling on two neighbouring glaciers in ortles cevedale italy from 2004 to 2009

AbstractA 6 year application of an enhanced temperature-index mass-balance model to Careser and La Mare glaciers, Eastern Italian Alps, is presented. The two glaciers exhibit very different characteristics, and a comprehensive dataset of distributed mass-balance measurements was used to test the model performance. The model was run using meteorological data acquired outside the glaciers. The work was focused on two main aspects: (1) the development of a morphological redistribution procedure for snow, and (2) the comparison of three different melt algorithms proposed in the literature. The results show that the simple method proposed for snow redistribution can greatly improve simulation of winter balance, and further improvements would be achievable by collecting data on inaccessible and high-altitude areas. All three melt formulations displayed a good skill level and very similar results in modelling the mass-balance distribution over glacier areas, with slightly better results from a multiplicative algorithm in capturing the vertical balance gradient. The simulation errors are related to aspect and elevation, and tend to be spatially aggregated. Some assumptions concerning the spatial and temporal distribution of air temperature and incoming solar radiation, although reasonable and widely used in the literature, may be responsible for this aggregation. Hence, there is a need to further investigate the processes that regulate the distribution of melt energy, and that appear to control the current deglaciation phase in this area

Air temperature variability over three glaciers in the Ortles-Cevedale (Italian Alps): Effects of glacier fragmentation, comparison of calculation methods, and impacts on mass balance modeling

Glacier mass balance models rely on accurate spatial calculation of input data, in particular air temperature. Lower temperatures (the so-called glacier cooling effect), and lower temperature variability (the so-called glacier damping effect) generally occur over glaciers, compared to ambient conditions. These effects, which depend on the geometric characteristics of glaciers and display a high spatial and temporal variability, have been mostly investigated on medium- to large-size glaciers so far, while observations on smaller ice bodies are scarce. Using a dataset from 8 on-glacier and 4 off-glacier weather stations, collected in summer 2010 and 2011, we analyzed the air temperature distribution variability and wind regime over three different glaciers in the Ortles-Cevedale. The magnitude of the cooling effect and the occurrence of katabatic boundary layer (KBL) processes showed remarkable differences among the three ice bodies, highlighting suggesting the likely existence of important reinforcing mechanisms during glacier decay and disintegration. None of the methods proposed in the literature for calculating on-glacier temperature from off-glacier data fully reproduced our observations. Among them, the more physically-based procedure of Greuell and B\uf6hm [1998] provided the best overall results where the KBL prevail, but it was not effective elsewhere (i.e. on smaller ice bodies and close to the glacier margins). The accuracy of air temperature estimations strongly impacted the results from a mass balance model which was applied to the three investigated glaciers. Most importantly, even small temperature deviations caused distortions in parameter calibration, thus compromising the model generalizability

Planning and management of actions on transportation system to address extraordinary events in post-emergency situations. A multidisciplinary approach

The main aim of the work is the design and implementation of an integrated procedure for the identification of optimum action plans (satisfying expenditure constraints) on a road transportation system to minimize the impact produced on it by extraordinary events, in particular earthquakes. The attention is focused particularly on post-emergency situations related to effects on transportation networks caused by extraordinary events; the effects are considered with reference to bridges. Addressing the transition from physical effects to functional effects (relating to mobility) on the single infrastructure element calls for a commitment which has appeared challenging in view of the strongly innovative content involved. The analysis process consists in different steps. At the first step an effort must be made in order to acquire knowledge about the characteristics of the set of infrastructures (bridges) and about a set of possible seismic scenarios. By using fragility curves of bridges, the damage state of the network links (in which bridges are included) can be obtained. By making a series of hypotheses on how a bridge damage state can influence links’ functionality, a set of “damaged” (lower capacity) road network models has been carried out. At the next step of the process, interaction between transportation supply and demand, by way of static or dynamic traffic assignment models, allows to measure the performance of the system, or rather, its overall response to extraordinary events using suitable performance indexes. Then, the network risk curve (probability of the seismic action vs. transportation system performance indexes) is derived. At the end of the process a cost-effective retrofit strategy has been identified. The procedure has been applied to a test network at regional scale in the north-east of Italy

High-Resolution monitoring of current rapid transformations on glacial and periglacial environments

Glacial and periglacial environments are highly sensitive to climatic changes. Processes of cryosphere degradation may strongly impact human activities and infrastructures, and need to be monitored for improved understanding and for mitigation/adaptation. Studying glacial and periglacial environments using traditional techniques may be difficult or not feasible, but new remote sensing techniques like terrestrial and aerial laser scanner opened new possibilities for cryospheric studies. This work presents an application of the terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) for monitoring the current rapid changes occurring on the Montasio Occidentale glacier (Eastern Italian alps), which is representative of low-altitude, avalanche-fed and debris-cover glaciers. These glaciers are quite common in the Alps but their reaction to climate changes is still poorly known. The mass balance, surface velocity fields, debris cover dynamics and effects of meteorological extremes were investigated by repeat high-resolution TLS scanning from September 2010 to October 2012. The results were encouraging and shed light on the peculiar response of this glacier to climatic changes, on its current dynamics and on the feedback played by the debris cover, which is critical for its preservation. The rapid transformations in act, combined with the unstable ice mass, large amount of loose debris and channeled runoff during intense rainfalls, constitute a potential area for the formation of large debris flows, as shown by field evidences and documented by the recent literature

Novel polysiloxane and polycarbosilane aerogels via hydrosilylation of preceramic polymers

We report new polysiloxane and polycarbosilane aerogels, which have been obtained by crosslinking Si–H-containing polymers with a CC-containing crosslinker via hydrosilylation reactions. The crosslinking reaction has been carried out in a highly diluted solution using up to 97 vol% of solvent. The obtained aerogels have a colloidal structure with meso- and macropores. Density as low as 0.17 g cm−3 has been reached, which implies a porosity of ca. 84 vol%

The current deglaciation of the Ortles-Cevedale massif (Eastern Italian Alps): impacts, controls and degree of imbalance.

The Ortles-Cevedale is the largest glacierized mountain group of the Italian Alps hosting 112 ice bodies, with a total area of 76.8 km2. Since the 1980\u2019s, this massif is undergoing a rapid deglaciation, as most of the mountain ranges in the European Alps. The aims of this work were: i) to quantify area and volume change of the Ortles- Cevedale glacier system from the 1980s to the 2000s; ii) to improve the knowledge of factors controlling the spatial variability of the deglaciation; and iii) to assess the degree of imbalance of individual glaciers with respect to the present climate conditions. Two inventories were created, based on Landsat5 TM scenes of 20-09-1987 and 31-08-2009. Contrast-enhanced composites (bands TM5, TM4 and TM3), aerial photos and field surveys (for the most recent period) were used to correct the automatic delineation of glaciers derived from a hard classification based on a threshold applied to a TM3/TM5 ratio image. Since Landsat scenes were acquired at the end of the ablation seasons and fresh snow was absent, the accumulation areas could be roughly determined by mapping the snow covered area. This region was identified from the difference in reflectance between snow and ice in the near infrared band of Landsat (TM4), and mapped after correcting topographic effects to determine surface reflectance. The area-averaged geodetic mass budget was then calculated for the individual glaciers by differencing two Digital Terrain Models (2000s minus 1980s, derived from LiDAR and aerial photogrammetry) and combining the result with the glacier outlines. Afterwards, we examined the mass balance data using statistical analyses (Correlation matrices, Principal Component Analysis, Cluster Analysis). This allowed us highlighting clusters of glaciers, which exhibit a similar behavior, identify the outlayers and the relative influence of the factors controlling spatial variability of the mass losses. Finally, we assessed the degree of imbalance of individual glaciers by comparing the current Accumulation Area Ratios (AAR) with the balanced-budget AAR (AAR0), the latter also accounting for the debris cover of glaciers. We found that the total area loss of the Ortles-Cevedale glaciers from 1987 to 2009 amounts to 23.5 km2, i.e. 23.4% of the initial area. On the other hand, the AAR of the entire glacier system was 0.3 in both investigated years. The overall debris cover increased from 10.5% to 16.3%. The geodetic mass balance rate was -0.7 m w.e. y1(as an average on 112 ice bodies), ranging from -0.1 to -1.7 m w.e. y1. We also found that the main controls of the differing change of single glaciers are related to their hypsometry (elevation range and slope), AAR, feeding source and debris cover. Interestingly, a significant correlation was found between AAR, AAR0 and debris cover. This information was used to assess and visualize the needed additional reduction of individual glaciers to reach equilibrium with the current size of their accumulation areas. This amounts on average to a further reduction of 40% of the current areal extent of glaciers

Novel Correlations between Spectroscopic and Morphological Properties of Activated Carbons from Waste Coffee Grounds

Massive quantities of spent coffee grounds (SCGs) are generated by users around the world. Different processes have been proposed for SCG valorization, including pyrolytic processes to achieve carbonaceous materials. Here, we report the preparation of activated carbons through pyrolytic processes carried out under different experimental conditions and in the presence of various porosity activators. Textural and chemical characterization of the obtained carbons have been achieved through Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET), ESEM, 13C solid state NMR, XPS, XRD, thermogravimetric and spectroscopic determinations. The aim of the paper is to relate these data to the preparation method, evaluating the correlation between the spectroscopic data and the physical and textural properties, also in comparison with the corresponding data obtained for three commercial activated carbons used in industrial adsorption processes. Some correlations have been observed between the Raman and XPS data

Age of the Mt. Ortles ice cores, the Tyrolean Iceman and glaciation of the highest summit of South Tyrol since the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum

In 2011 four ice cores were extracted from the summit of Alto dell'Ortles (3859 m), the highest glacier of South Tyrol in the Italian Alps. This drilling site is located only 37 km southwest from where the Tyrolean Iceman, similar to 5.3 kyrs old, was discovered emerging from the ablating ice field of Tisenjoch (3210 m, near the Italian-Austrian border) in 1991. The excellent preservation of this mummy suggested that the Tyrolean Iceman was continuously embedded in prehistoric ice and that additional ancient ice was likely preserved elsewhere in South Tyrol. Dating of the ice cores from Alto dell'Ortles based on Pb-210, tritium, beta activity and C-14 determinations, combined with an empirical model (COPRA), provides evidence for a chronologically ordered ice stratigraphy from the modern glacier surface down to the bottom ice layers with an age of similar to 7 kyrs, which confirms the hypothesis. Our results indicate that the drilling site has continuously been glaciated on frozen bedrock since similar to 7 kyrs BP. Absence of older ice on the highest glacier of South Tyrol is consistent with the removal of basal ice from bedrock during the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum (6-9 kyrs BP), the warmest interval in the European Alps during the Holocene. Borehole inclinometric measurements of the current glacier flow combined with surface ground penetration radar (GPR) measurements indicate that, due to the sustained atmospheric warming since the 1980s, an acceleration of the glacier Alto dell'Ortles flow has just recently begun. Given the stratigraphic-chronological continuity of the Mt. Ortles cores over millennia, it can be argued that this behaviour has been unprecedented at this location since the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum